Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Mainly because of adjustments for maize in Argentina and South Africa, the forecast for 2025/26 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is increased by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,477m. With consumption also revised 3m t higher, the outlook for stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is maintained at 638m. The trade figure is boosted by 3m t, with increases for maize and barley.

The 2026/27 grains supply and demand outlook is similar to last month. At 2,414m t, the world crop projection is unchanged from before, seen 3% lower y/y (year-on-year). Amid offsetting changes across commodities, forecast uptake is kept at 2,437m t, with inventories still seen at 615m. Including cuts for wheat and barley, the trade outlook is cut by 2m t, to 446m.

With an increased figure for soyabean production absorbed by consumption, 2025/26 global end-season reserves are seen near-unchanged compared to April. Projected just a fraction higher m/m, 2026/27 world output is placed at a peak of 442m t (+3%), with consumption and inventories also raised from previously. While the outlook is trimmed, trade flows are still anticipated to reach a peak (+2%).

There are few adjustments to the 2025/26 rice supply and demand outlook, with production seen at a fresh high. The rise in consumption is set to be driven by expanding food demand, while stocks are also predicted higher y/y, bolstered by accumulation in India. Trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is projected to expand by 4% y/y.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) trended higher over the past month, gaining by a net 3%.

Total grains production is forecast at a fresh peak in 2025/26, with y/y growth of 6% the fastest in nine-seasons. Consumption is also seen exceeding previous highs, but with a comparatively larger supply influx expected to result in a 9% accumulation in closing inventories.

Owing to a smaller harvested area and poorer average yields, world grains output is projected to fall by 3% in 2026/27, potentially the first decline in four seasons. Owing to rising use of wheat, maize and barley, total uptake is predicted to edge higher. Stocks are seen tightening by 4% but at 615m t, are seen matching the five-year average. Mainly owing to smaller imports by North Africa and Near East Asia, trade is placed 2% down from the prior year.

Mainly tied to larger shipments to destinations in the Far East, world soyabean import demand in 2025/26 is forecast to edge up to a record. Looking ahead to 2026/27, global output is projected to expand by 3% y/y amid expectations for bigger harvests in major producers. Demand across all end use segments is set to underpin processing as combined reserves are drawn down modestly. Trade (Oct/Sep) is seen rising by 2%, to 190m t, with Brazilian suppliers accounting for more than 60% all shipment flows.

Global rice output in 2026/27 is tentatively seen steady y/y, with output expanding in India, contrasting with falls elsewhere. World use will be almost exclusively shaped by increasing food demand, rising by 1% y/y. Boosted by a further increase in leading exporters, aggregate stocks are anticipated to expand. World trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is predicted at a peak of 62m t (+4%), boosted by firmer African buying.

After holding steady in the prior year, world dry beans output is projected to contract by 2% y/y in 2026/27, including smaller crops in India, the US and Brazil. Given potentially reduced availabilities, consumption and stocks are likely to fall. Trade is tentatively predicted near-unchanged y/y in 2027 (Jan/Dec) amid few significant changes in Asian needs.

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI rose by 3% over the past four weeks, with net gains in grains, rice and oilseed export prices.

Inflated mainly by steep advances in US fob prices, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index climbed by 4%, recently reaching its highest since June 2024.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index strengthened by 1%, touching a 13-month peak in early-May, on steady buying interest, emerging weather concerns and spillover from other markets.

The IGC GOI rice sub-Index ticked higher, rising by around 2% m/m, supported primarily by tighter spot supplies in Thailand and Vietnam.

Tied to gains across all key origins, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was around 3% higher over the month, with external developments often a key influence.