Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
Increased 2026/27 crop forecasts for barley and wheat outweigh reductions for maize and sorghum, lifting the world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production figure by 4m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,420m, second only to last season's record. Tighter supplies and rising prices are expected to cap consumption, placed unchanged from before, at 2,444m t. Factoring in a smaller carry-in, the forecast of global closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is up by 2m t, at 608m. With a downgraded outlook for wheat flows balanced by increases for maize and barley, the trade outlook is maintained at 451m t, down by 16m y/y (year-on-year).
Reflecting marginal adjustments for South American producers, the Council's projection for world soyabean output in 2026/27 is trimmed slightly m/m, albeit still a peak. Feeding through to a reduced outlook for availabilities, figures for total use and stocks are lowered from previously. Prospects for global trade are near-unchanged m/m, at a record of close to 191m t (+2%).
Given a downgraded outlook for rice consumption, expectations for global ending stocks in 2025/26 are lifted by 2m t m/m. Looking ahead to 2026/27, world output is seen 5m t down m/m, in large part reflecting a reduced figure for India’s kharif crop. With consumption predicted 3m t lower, also taking account of higher carry-in reserves, world carryovers are pegged near-unchanged from August. Prospects for trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) are maintained at a high of 61.7m t.
Including solid gains across all markets, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbed by 6%, to a three-year peak, up by 20% y/y.
After three successive increases, total grains production is forecast to drop by 3% in 2026/27. Outturns in Oceania, Europe and the Americas are expected to be smaller compared to the season before, but bigger harvests will be achieved in North Africa and Near East Asia, likely crimping import demand. Owing to severe disruptions to Black Sea exports, global wheat flows to date are unusually slow, with grains shipments (July/June) predicted to slip to 451m t (-3%). Total uptake is placed fractionally lower y/y, at 2,444m t, with rising food and industrial uses more than offset by reduced feeding. Including tighter wheat and maize inventories, world end-year grain stocks are projected to fall by 4%, to 608m t, 24m less than at the start of the season.
With sizeable crops in leading exporters anticipated, world soyabean output in 2026/27 is projected to reach a fresh high (+3%), further boosting availabilities. As solid demand for soya-based derivatives underpins expanded crush volumes, global utilisation is seen at a new peak (+3%), resulting in tighter inventories. Much of the drawdown is expected to be due to major exporters, combined reserves contracting by almost one-fifth y/y. World import demand is projected to increase for a fifth consecutive year, to a record of 191m t (+2%)
After reaching a peak in 2025/26, world rice production in 2026/27 is expected to decline for the first time in more than a decade, in large part tied to a potential drop in India. With uptake predicted to expand by 1% y/y on growing demand in key Asian and African consumers, stocks are anticipated to tighten, including a modest contraction in India. Shaped by demand from buyers in sub-Saharan Africa, global trade flows in 2027 are seen expanding by 3% to a new high.
Owing to potentially smaller crops in key growers, notably India, world dry beans production is seen contracting by 3% in 2026/27. Given the backdrop of tighter supplies, both consumption and inventories are projected to contract, the latter reflecting drawdowns in major exporters. Boosted by demand for urd and mung beans from Asian buyers, trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is predicted to stay elevated, at 5.2m t (+1%).
MARKET SUMMARY
World grains, rice and oilseeds export prices strengthened in recent weeks, the IGC GOI up by 6%. Support stemmed from the changing global supply matrix, strength in crude oil values and background weather concerns.
With bullish market sentiment underpinned by persistent shipping bottlenecks in the Black Sea region, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index was 6% higher over the month.
The IGC GOI maize sub-Index rose by 5% in the four weeks since the August GMR, underpinned mainly by a tightening US supply outlook and ongoing disruptions to Ukrainian exports.
Buoyed by slow producer selling and resulting gains in export prices in Thailand, India and the US, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index firmed by 3%.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index gained by 7%, buoyed by robust international demand and spillover from surging energy markets.