Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2023/24 is forecast 4m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,297m, mainly reflecting smaller sorghum and barley estimates. While the supply outlook is somewhat cushioned by increased carry-ins, the estimate for carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is cut by 3m t m/m, to 588m. Boosted by larger wheat and maize flows, the forecast for trade is hiked by 8m t from last time.
Including cuts for maize (mainly in Argentina, sub-Saharan Africa) and wheat (Russia, Ukraine, the US), the projection for global grains production in 2024/25 is down by 10m t m/m, to 2,312m, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year). Forecast consumption is trimmed m/m, but with tighter supplies, closing stocks are placed 12m t lower than before, at 580m, a second successive sharp monthly reduction. Maize accounts for most of the 2m t cut to the forecast for global trade, seen at 416m t (-4% y/y).
On the basis of larger than anticipated dispatches to key markets, including China, more recently, the outlook for world soyabean trade in 2023/24 is uprated by 2.0m t m/m. Global output in 2024/25 is projected 1m t higher m/m and, due to higher carry-ins, inventories are raised by about 3m t m/m. Trade is predicted steady m/m, at an all-time peak of 172.2m t (+2%).
Uprated figures for world rice production and total supplies in 2023/24 are channelled to increases for consumption and aggregate stocks. Lifted by 3m t m/m, global rice output in 2024/25 is pegged at a record of 523m (+2%), also feeding through to an upgraded prediction for combined reserves. Trade in 2025 is pegged up slightly from April on higher projections for Asian and African buyers, with much of the m/m gain reflected in upward adjustments for Indian and US exports.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) posted solid gains, rising to a four-month peak, led by especially strong advances in wheat prices.
Entirely because of a much larger maize outturn, global total grains production in 2023/24 is forecast to edge higher y/y, to 2,297m t. Despite larger supplies, a relatively sharper increase in consumption, to 2,311m (+2%), will push ending stocks lower, estimated at 588m t (-2%), including tighter wheat inventories (-6%).
Grains output is projected to increase by a further 1% in 2024/25, to 2,312m t. In a reversal to the trends in the season before, maize production is seen lower, but with y/y gains across other commodities. Consumption growth is expected to be fairly tepid, rising by 9m t y/y, to 2,320m, albeit with food, feed and industrial uses seen at new peaks. Closing stocks are pegged at a 10-year low of 580m t (-1%), led by declines for wheat and maize, with exporter inventories at 142m (-3%).
After surging in the prior year, global soyabean trade is projected to edge lower in 2023/24, albeit remaining significantly above average, including sizeable deliveries to key buyers. Global output is predicted to reach a high of 414m t in 2024/25, including heavy outturns in the US, Brazil and Argentina, while an uplift in demand for soya products is set to underpin record processing and total use. Carryovers are seen accumulating further, with much of the increase due to the three major exporters. Trade is anticipated to resume an uptrend, expanding by 2% y/y.
Chiefly linked to a reduction for China, global rice stocks are seen falling by 4m t y/y in 2023/24. Looking ahead to prospects for 2024/25, production is projected at an all-time high (+2%), with increases anticipated in leading exporters, notably in South Asia. Consumption is seen advancing on population gains, while inventories could rise on accumulation in India. Trade is projected to expand marginally in 2025, as shipments to African markets more than offset reduced buying by Asian importers, mainly Indonesia.
Global lentils production is projected to recover in 2024/25 on a bigger crop in Canada, with gains, too, in consumption and stocks. After falling in 2024, global import demand is predicted to edge up in the following year on larger shipments to the Near East. In the Council’s updated outlook, trade in all pulses in 2024 is forecast at 21.2m t, down 5% y/y on softer demand for lentils and broad beans.
MARKET SUMMARY
The IGC GOI soared by 9% m/m. While all constituent commodities gained, advances in wheat, soyabeans and barley were especially marked.
Buoyed by northern hemisphere weather worries, which mainly focused on frost-related production losses in Russia, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index spiked by 16%, reaching a 7-month peak.
The IGC GOI maize sub-Index was 4% higher m/m, underpinned by supply uncertainties and spillover from wheat. Offers from Ukraine were especially firm, partly boosted by strong export demand.
The IGC GOI rice-sub Index rose by 4%, led by solid gains in Thailand, tied to tightening spot supplies and firmer overseas demand.
Fuelled mainly by heightened worries about production and logistics in southern Brazil, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index advanced by a net 9%.