Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

With the northern hemisphere harvest now in its late stages, a further 7m t has been added to the 2026/27 forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production, now pegged at 2,427m. The m/m (month-on-month) increase primarily reflects an upgraded maize figure, but with the barley outlook also improving. Carry-in inventories are revised higher and, with grains consumption projected only 2m t more than before, much of the additional supply is channelled into closing stocks, placed 11m up from September, at 619m (aggregate of respective local marketing years). Tied to another reduction for wheat, the trade projection is down by 1m t, at 450m.

Reflecting marginal adjustments to outlooks for production and consumption, aggregate soyabean inventories in 2026/27 are uprated slightly m/m, to around 74m t; within the total, major exporters' reserves are seen falling steeply. The Council's projection for global import demand is trimmed fractionally m/m, to 190m t, still representing an all-time peak.

Expectations for world rice supply and demand in 2025/26 are broadly unchanged m/m, with a modest 0.5m t reduction in trade mostly tied to a downgraded import figure for the Philippines. Global output in 2026/27 is projected steady m/m and down by 11m t y/y (year-on-year). With consumption predicted to gain, combined inventories are set to tighten. Trade in 2027 is seen little-changed at a record of 61m t.

World grains and oilseeds export markets had a softer tone during the past month, but rice values were firmer. Overall, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was down by 4%.

World total grains production in 2026/27 is expected to be 68m t lower y/y at 2,427m. The decline includes 40m t of maize and 25m of wheat, while barley is seen 4m higher. Grains consumption is forecast to be up marginally to a new high of 2,446m t, with increased food and industrial uptake just about offsetting reduced feeding. Even after this month's increase, end-season stocks are still predicted to tighten, placed 19m t down y/y, at 619m. World trade (Jul/Jun) is projected to reach 450m t, a drop of 17m, including notable falls in wheat (-15m) and barley (-7m), but an increase for maize (+6m).

Chiefly due to an anticipated record US outturn, together with potentially sizeable South American crops, world soyabean output in 2026/27 is forecast at a peak (+2%). With growing demand for soya derivatives set to underpin further gains in consumption, aggregate carryovers are predicted to tighten, including a reduction in exporters' reserves. Given tentative expectations for ample and attractively priced surpluses at key origins, trade could expand by 2% y/y to a fresh high, led by firmer Asian buying interest.

Projected to contract for the first time in more than 10 years, global rice production in 2026/27 is pegged at 536m t (-2%) including a 6m decline in India. Expanding food requirements in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are likely to underpin a 1% increase in consumption, while combined reserves could decrease for the first time in four years, albeit staying historically comfortable. Trade in 2027 is predicted at a peak, boosted by potentially firmer demand from African buyers.

After the prior year's sizeable gain, world lentils output is seen contracting by 9% y/y in 2026/27, chiefly tied to a smaller Canadian harvest. With consumption only marginally higher, also taking account of heavy carry-ins, global end-season inventories are expected to expand solidly, including in key exporters. Trade volumes are predicted little-changed y/y, at 5.3m t, underpinned by Asian demand.

MARKET SUMMARY

Some earlier advances in world grains and oilseeds export quotations were unwound in recent weeks, with the IGC GOI down by a net 4%.

Mainly because of softer North American export quotations, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index dropped by 5%. US fob values were pressed by disappointing export progress, currency movements and spillover from maize.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index slumped by 7%, weighed predominantly by supply side considerations, including two bearishly perceived USDA reports.

With tight nearby availabilities lending price support in several markets, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index rose by 2% m/m, up by 21% compared to a year earlier.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index eased by 3%. Light pressure stemmed from some disappointment about the outcome of US-China bilateral talks, seasonal factors and a good start to the Brazilian planting season.