Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
At 2,404m t, the 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is raised by 27m m/m (month-on-month). The unusually sharp revision mainly reflects upgraded US maize area and yield projections, but with relatively smaller increases too, for wheat, sorghum and oats. Changes to grains use absorb more than half of the supply gain, including increases for feed and industrial uptake. With larger supply compared to the July GMR, and also taking account of bigger opening inventories, the projection for global closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is up by 16m t m/m, to 597m. The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is lifted by 7m t, to 437m.
With a marginally reduced outlook for US production more than offset by uprated outlooks for others, the 2025/26 world soyabean output projection is raised slightly, to 430m t, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year); the net m/m gain in availabilities is channelled to increased figures for consumption and stocks. Trade is seen 1m t higher than in July, at a new peak (+2% y/y).
The 2024/25 rice supply and demand balance sheet is broadly unchanged m/m, with stocks seen rising by around 7m t y/y, chiefly on solid gains in India. Similarly, there are few changes to projections for 2025/26, with record supplies and consumption tentatively anticipated. Owing to a marginally reduced carry-in, aggregate inventories are trimmed by 1m t m/m.
Underpinned by gains in soyabean and maize export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) firmed slightly m/m, unchanged compared to one year ago.
A projected 83m t y/y increase in 2025/26 total grains output includes bigger harvests of maize (+65m y/y), wheat (+11m), barley (+3m), sorghum (+2m) and oats (+1m). Amid record supplies and resulting price pressure, global consumption growth is forecast to accelerate, placed 49m t above the previous year. After three successive drawdowns, year-end inventories could expand by 13m t, but with stocks still seen tighter than average. Trade is forecast to rebound to 437m t (+12m), including larger shipments of wheat (+8m) and maize (+5m).
Following a year of record soyabean supplies, demand and trade, fresh peaks are predicted in 2025/26. Amid tentative outlooks for bigger South American crops, global output is pegged at a peak of 430m t (+1%), while expanded processing in Asia, the Americas and Africa is seen underpinning a 4% y/y gain in uptake as aggregate stocks edge lower. Trade is projected at a new high (+2%).
After a heavy increase in the prior year, world rice output is predicted to edge up to a peak in 2025/26, largely on gains in the three majors. Given sizeable opening stocks, record supplies are predicted; alongside a further increase in global use (particularly of white varieties), carryovers are seen rising further. Trade is expected to expand to 60m t in 2026.
World broad beans output is predicted to edge down in 2025/26 on reduced crops in Australia and the UK. With total use set to expand, inventories could contract, including in key exporters. After increasing in the prior calendar year, trade is projected to decrease in 2026. Throughout the forecast period, Egypt is set to be by far the largest importer.
MARKET SUMMARY
With two-sided movements across the core commodities, the IGC GOI gained by 1% over the past five weeks.
The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index dipped by 1% m/m, weighed by ideas of plentiful world availabilities.
Boosted primarily by firmer South American export premiums, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index rose by a net 1%.
Amid ample world supplies and tepid demand, the IGC GOI rice-sub-Index slumped by 3%, dropping to a more than five-year low.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index advanced by 3% since mid-July, bolstered by increases in indicative export values in Brazil and Argentina.