Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Mainly because of an increase for maize in Argentina, the forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2025/26 is raised by 4m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,474m. The consumption estimate is down by 1m t from the March GMR, with a downgraded wheat food use number (India) more than offsetting an uprated outlook for maize feeding. Owing to bigger supply and smaller usage, the closing stocks figure (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is lifted by 6m t, to 638m; including a sizeable revision for wheat. Trade is pegged 2m t higher than before and, at 451m, potentially 27m higher y/y (year-on-year).

Concerns about fertiliser affordability and application decisions have added to uncertainties about the 2026/27 cropping outlook, including in parts of the southern hemisphere, where upcoming requirements may not be fully covered. Although some projections have been trimmed m/m, with the total down by 3m t, the global outturn is still anticipated to be the second largest ever, at 2,414m. Compared to last month's initial outlook, the consumption estimate is lowered, with forecast inventories higher and trade unchanged.

This month's report features relatively minor changes to the 2025/26 global balance sheet for soyabeans, both production and consumption pegged marginally higher m/m. Seen just a shade lower compared to March, global production is pegged at a new peak of 441m t (+3%) in 2026/27. As the outlook for world utilisation is uprated slightly, inventories are trimmed by almost 4m t m/m, near-entirely on a reduced figure for combined exporters' reserves. The projection for trade is broadly unchanged, at a new high (+2%).

The global rice supply and demand outlook for 2025/26 is little-changed m/m, with figures for production, consumption, stocks and trade at respective records. Similarly, there are only minor adjustments to tentative projections for 2026/27. Trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is predicted to exceed 60m t for the first time, with import demand shaped by rising food requirements, particularly in Africa.

With most markets exhibiting a firm undertone, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 1% m/m.

Total grains production is expected to reach a new peak in 2025/26, seen 6% higher y/y. With comparatively slower growth in consumption (+3%), global stocks are forecast to build by 9%, marking the sharpest rate of expansion in nine years. Trade is pegged 6% more than the season before, at 451m t, including increases for most grains.

At 2,414m t, world output is projected to remain elevated in 2026/27. However, with anticipated declines for all major crops, including wheat and maize, the total is seen 2% short of the prior year's record. With a high level of carry-in stocks offering only partial offsetting, total supply is forecast slightly tighter compared to the prior season. Consumption is projected to increase for a fourth year in a row, but with growth in feed and industrial uses slower y/y. After an accumulation in 2025/26, closing inventories could tighten again, including anticipated drawdowns in wheat, maize and barley stocks. Trade is placed modestly lower y/y, at 448m t.

With the current trade year characterised by sizeable shipment flows from South American origins to Asia, global soyabean import demand in 2025/26 is seen rising by 1% y/y to a new peak. World production is projected at a record in 2026/27, tied to acreage gains and improved productivity in leading growers. Given prospects for plentiful availabilities and assumed attractive pricing, uptake could rise further (+3%), but inventories are likely to tighten. Hinging on demand from Asian importers, trade could rise by 2% y/y.

Global rice output in 2026/27 is tentatively projected at a fresh peak, including bigger crops in India and China. Population growth is set to underpin a further increase in world use, while stocks could rise further, chiefly on accumulation in India. Global shipment flows in 2027 are anticipated to expand by 2% y/y to a new high, with Indian suppliers likely accounting for nearly 40% of overall dispatches.

Global chickpeas output is predicted to remain elevated through 2026/27, including sizeable crops in key exporters. Given plentiful supplies, consumption is set to advance over the next two years, while inventories are likely to build. Although trade is projected to contract during the forecast period, chiefly on softer demand from South Asian buyers, volumes are expected to remain above the recent average.

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI firmed by 1% over the past month. Aside from fundamentals, markets were also subject to various outside influences, including movements in crude oil and currencies.

With mixed price trends across key suppliers, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index held mostly unchanged m/m.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index gained by a net 1%, bouncing from mid-month lows, led by advances in Argentina and Ukraine.

Boosted by rising energy, transportation and packaging costs at key Asian origins, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index rose by 6% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index advanced by 1% over the month, mostly tied to gains in Brazil.