Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Including m/m (month-on-month) downgrades for wheat, maize and sorghum, the 2026/27 world total grains production forecast is reduced by 5m t to 2,416m. Due to sustained heat, outlooks have deteriorated further in Europe, with the EU projection cut for a second month in a row. Tied mainly to a revised feed use figure, global consumption is placed 3m t lower m/m, at 2,444m, down slightly y/y (year-on-year). The stocks outlook continues to tighten, with cumulative inventories (aggregate of respective local marketing years) pegged 4m t down from before, at 606m.

Mainly because of increased EU maize import needs, the trade forecast (Jul/Jun) is raised by 1m t from July, to 451m. Amid heightened security risks, deep sea exports from Russia (Novorossiysk) and Ukraine are effectively at a standstill. Shipping suspensions have so far mainly affected wheat flows, with exports since the intensification of hostilities in mid-July estimated to be around 4m t lower than normal. Partly owing to muted nearby import demand, the market impact has been relatively restrained so far, but with much depending on the length and severity of the disruptions.

Forecast unchanged from July, soyabean trade in 2025/26 (Oct/Sep) is pegged at a record of 187m t (+2%). Due to offsetting adjustments, the Council’s expectations for global output in 2026/27 are maintained at a record and marginally higher y/y. The outlook for processing and utilisation is uprated, chiefly on increases in the three majors and Asia, but, due to higher carry-ins, closing socks are predicted near-unchanged m/m. Trade is projected steady m/m, at a new high (+2%).

The Council's expectations for rice supply and demand in 2025/26 are broadly intact, with stocks seen rising to an all-time high on accumulation in India (+13% y/y). The outlook for world production in 2026/27 is cut by 2m t to reflect a downgraded figure for India, also feeding through to a marginally reduced number for inventories. Trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is seen at a record on strong demand from buyers in Africa and Asia.

Tied to heightened geopolitical and weather risks, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) gained by 3% compared to the July GMR.

Owing to declines in harvested area and yields, total grains production is forecast to drop by 3% in 2026/27, to 2,416m t, still the second largest on record. The smaller outturn more than offsets larger opening inventories, seen resulting in a 1% drop in total supply. Despite slightly reduced uptake, global closing stocks are expected to tighten, placed 4% lower y/y, at 606m t, with declines for wheat, maize, barley, sorghum and rye. Mainly because of reduced shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa, trade in grains is projected to fall by 3%, to 451m t.

Tied to bigger crops in the US and Brazil in particular, global soyabean output is predicted at a high in 2026/27 (+2%). Reflecting expectations for firmer demand for soya derivatives across feed, food and biofuel sectors, utilisation is seen gaining by 3% y/y, while combined reserves are likely to tighten, including in key exporters. Boosted especially by growing Asian feed demand, world shipment flows are projected at a record of 190m t (+2%). While seen below past highs, recent buying by China has entrenched expectations for a moderate recovery of US shipments.

World rice output in 2026/27 is anticipated to decline by 1% y/y. Growing food demand will likely underpin expanded global uptake and, as such, stocks could contract for the first time in four years, including a drawdown in Indian inventories. Assuming solid demand from African importers, trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) could reach a peak.

While a sizeable Indian chickpeas harvest is anticipated, this will be outweighed by reductions elsewhere, notably in Australia, as global output contracts slightly y/y in 2026/27. With consumption seen holding steady y/y, carryovers are likely to build owing to high carry-ins, mainly in major exporters. World import demand is pegged at 3.3m t, little-changed y/y but below past peaks.

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI rose by 3% overall, recently touching a more than two-year high, with net increases across all constituent components.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index was 2% higher compared to mid-July. While fob values in Russia were assessed lower amid a depreciating rouble and rising freight costs, prices at competing origins were mostly firmer.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index strengthened by 3%, bolstered by a tightening US stocks outlook and ongoing interruptions to Ukrainian shipments.

Underpinned partly by worries about the influence of El Niño on 2026/27 cropping prospects in parts of Asia, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index gained by a net 3%.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index rose by 4%, pulled higher by firmer values at South American origins, as farmers in Brazil and Argentina turned more reluctant sellers.