Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

The 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is hiked by 13m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,425m. This marks a third consecutive upgrade and, similar to the prior month, the revision primarily reflects increases for wheat and barley, as latest data confirmed better than anticipated yields in a number of key producers. With only part of the increased supply channelled into consumption, pegged 5m t higher than before, at 2,400m, the projection for global ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is raised by 12m m/m, to a three-year high of 618m. Predominantly because of an uplift for wheat, the outlook for grains trade is boosted slightly from before, to 440m t.

Pegged fractionally lower m/m, global soyabean output in 2025/26 is predicted little-changed y/y (year-on-year). While the figure for consumption is trimmed, reduced carry-in inventories feed through to a smaller nominal number for aggregate end-season stocks. Within the total, major exporters' reserves are cut significantly m/m, chiefly on adjustments for Brazil and Argentina. The projection for trade is uprated by more than 2m t to reflect potentially firmer Asian demand.

Chiefly linked to an upward revision for India, aggregate end-season rice inventories in 2024/25 are seen higher m/m, at around 185m t. With an uprated figure for carry-ins offsetting a reduced outlook for production, in large part linked to challenging conditions in Pakistan, combined stocks are predicted steady from before, at 187m t. The Council's expectations for trade in 2026 are also maintained at about 60m t, marginally higher y/y.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped to a five-year low, with wheat and rice export prices especially weak.

World total grains output is forecast to increase for a third year in a row, to a record 2,425m t. At 98m t (+4%), the y/y increase in production is expected to be the sharpest since 2016/17 and includes sizeable gains in maize (+59m), wheat (+27m) and barley (+8m). All grains consumption is also forecast to climb to a new peak, with growth in food, feed and industrial uses. Carryover inventories are predicted to build at the end of 2025/26, pegged 25m t higher y/y, at 614m, pulled higher mainly by an accumulation in exporter stocks. Led by an upturn in wheat shipments, trade is seen at a larger than average 440m t, up by 16m y/y.

World soyabean output in 2025/26 is predicted little-changed y/y, at 428m t, as gains in Brazil, the CIS and elsewhere contrast with smaller North American crops. With growth likely to moderate, total use is seen at a new peak, while stocks could tighten slightly. After a solid increase in the prior year, trade is expected to rise further, boosted by Asian demand, with South American suppliers accounting for a bigger proportion of total volumes.

Following the previous year's heavy gain, global rice output is predicted to stay elevated in 2025/26, with Indian output at a record. While population growth is seen underpinning record total use, combined inventories are seen rising by a further 2m t, including accumulation in key exporters. Global import demand is projected to edge higher, to 60m t, with heavy shipments to destinations in Africa likely.

In the Council’s first formal supply and demand outlook, global pigeon peas production is predicted broadly steady y/y in 2025/26. With an increase in consumption anticipated, stocks are set to tighten, to 1.1m t (-9%). After falling in 2025 (Jan/Dec), trade is tentatively projected at a similar level in the following year, with Indian demand accounting for more than 95% of all shipment flows.

MARKET SUMMARY

Pulled lower by m/m losses across all constituent components, the IGC GOI declined by 2%.

With export prices generally anchored by abundant availabilities, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index eased by 2%, touching a fresh five-year low.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index worked lower, mainly in response to a seasonal northern hemisphere supply influx and news of larger than expected US quarterly stocks.

Tied to persistently weak global demand and harvesting pressure, the IGC GOI rice-sub-Index fell by 5%, receding to its lowest since April 2017.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index weakened over recent weeks, pulled lower by modestly softer South American quotations.