Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is rising faster than forecast previously. Including upgraded outlooks for maize (mainly the US, China), wheat (Argentina, Canada) and barley (Canada, Australia), the world production estimate is up by 31m t compared to late-November, at a record 2,461m. While an additional 16m t may be channelled into consumption, now seen at 2,416m, almost as much might also be added into year-end stocks, assessed at 634m (aggregate of respective local marketing years). Global trade (July/June) is now put at 446m t, 4m more than the last forecast and 5% higher y/y (year-on-year).

Wheat harvested area is expected to dip slightly in 2026/27 and assuming average yields, next year's crop is initially projected to drop by around 2% y/y. With demand seen at a new peak, global stocks are seen moderating slightly, but with aggregate inventories in the major exporters set to remain at comfortable levels.

Seen little-changed from November, world soyabean production is pegged just a touch below the prior year's peak. With a marginal increase in availabilities matched by an uprated outlook for global demand, combined end-season carryovers are predicted broadly steady from before, at an above-average 77m t (-5m). At 187m t, the forecast for trade is maintained and equates to a 1% y/y gain.

The outlook for global rice production is mostly unchanged from before, at a high of 543m t. With consumption pegged modestly lower, paired with larger carry-ins, 2025/26 end-season inventories are increased by 2m t. Expectations for trade in 2026 (Jan/Dec) are scaled back slightly, but, at 60m t (+2%), volumes would still be a record.

Weighed mainly by weakness in global soyabean and wheat export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) recently dipped to a three-month low.

Boosted by better yields (+5%) and area gains (+1%), the 2025/26 total grains harvest will smash all existing records, seen 6% higher y/y. As well as bumper maize and wheat outturns, barley and sorghum crops are also expected at multi-season peaks. Consumption growth of 3% is seen faster compared to normal, led by an anticipated solid rise in feeding. After three successive drawdowns, inventories could increase by 8%, potentially the fastest rate of expansion in nine years. Comparatively steep gains are foreseen in most major exporters, with cumulative carryovers placed 40% higher y/y, at 181m t. Owing to larger wheat and maize flows, trade is forecast at a larger-than-average 446m t (+5%).

At 427m t, global soyabean production is seen just a fraction below the prior year's peak and markedly above the recent norm, including a potential record Brazilian outturn. Stemming from expanded uptake across feed, food and industrial segments, world utilisation is anticipated to rise by 3% y/y to a fresh high, including gains in the three main exporters and China. While global inventories are likely to tighten, they are set to remain historically comfortable, but with major exporters' reserves well short of past highs. Trade is predicted to edge up to a fresh peak (+1%).

Global rice output in 2025/26 is forecast largely steady y/y, including a 1% increase in aggregate production in the major exporters. With food demand shaped by population growth, total use is set to reach a new peak, while stocks are projected to expand further, largely on accumulation in India. Underpinned by brisk demand from key buyers in Africa, trade in 2026 is anticipated to rise by 2% y/y.

With availabilities swelled by a heavy global harvest, courtesy of sizeable crops in major exporting countries, global lentils uptake is predicted to expand solidly in 2025/26, by 15% y/y; Asia is set to be key to the uptrend, where growing populations, increasing health awareness and firmer demand for derivative products will underpin. Tied to potentially larger shipments to South and Near East Asia, trade in 2026 is projected at 4.9m t (+14%).

MARKET SUMMARY

Amid an overall heavy global supply outlook, the IGC GOI weakened by 4%, with losses in wheat and soyabean fob values outweighing net gains in rice, barley and maize.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index eased by 2% over past eight weeks. While there were mixed movements across key origins, export prices were generally anchored by ample global availabilities.

With previous strength mostly undone in recent weeks, mainly in reaction to an uprated US crop estimate, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index was only modestly higher compared to November.

The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index rose by 5% in the period since the November report, boosted mainly by flood-related harvest disruptions in Thailand and stronger local prices in Pakistan.

Including sizeable falls at southern hemisphere origins, but with US values also lower on overall bearish fundamentals, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index slumped by a net 9%.