Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

The production forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) is revised 5m t higher this month, to a record 2,430m, including increases for wheat, maize and barley. Harvests have so far been better than expected, with projections revised higher in consecutive reports since August. Total grains demand is set to rise by 2% y/y (year-on-year), with growth in feed and food use outpacing last season and the five-year average. With a substantial surplus expected, end season stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are expected to rise y/y, pegged 1m t more m/m (month-on-month), at 619m. Tied primarily to an upgraded outlook for sorghum, the global trade forecast is lifted by 3m t, to 442m.

Reflecting marginal adjustments across a number of producers, world soyabean output in 2025/26 is forecast 2m t lower m/m, at 426m (-1%), still the second largest on record. With the projection for consumption near-unchanged from before, global end-season carryovers are lowered by 2m t m/m; within the total, major exporters' reserves are predicted broadly steady y/y. The outlook for trade is maintained at 187m t (+2%).

With a marginally upgraded production figure contrasting a downgrade to expectations for total use, world rice inventories in 2025/26 are seen 2m t higher m/m, at 189m (+2%). The outlook for global import demand in 2026 is pegged fractionally up from October at a record of 61m t (+4%).

After slumping to a five-year low at the end of September, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) subsequently rebounded, recently climbing to a 12-month peak.

At 2,430m t, world total grains output is forecast to rise by 5% in 2025/26, with y/y increases for all grains. The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are envisaged to push total consumption to a new high of 2,400m t (+2%). Global stocks of grains are set to build for the first time since 2021/22, placed 5% higher y/y, at 619m t, led by a marked upturn in exporter inventories. After falling last year, trade will grow again, seen totalling 442m t (+4%).

World soyabean output is forecast at around 426m t, representing a slight y/y contraction but well ahead of the recent average, including a potentially record outturn in Brazil. With consumption seen at a new peak on gains in Asia and the Americas in particular, inventories could tighten, by around 5m t y/y; within the total, major exporters' reserves are predicted at 21m t (-1%). Again boosted by Asian buying, trade is projected at a high of 187m t (+2%).

Global rice output is forecast fractionally higher y/y in 2025/26, bolstered by modest gains in key exporters. Against the backdrop of heavy supplies, world uptake is seen climbing by 1% on food sector gains, while combined end-season reserves are set to rise, including in the five majors. Trade could increase further in 2026 (+4%) on solid interest from importers in Asia and Africa.

In the Council’s first formal supply and demand outlook, forecasts for dry beans production and consumption in 2025/26 are seen little-changed y/y, with fundamentals largely shaped by developments in Asia, notably India. After expanding solidly in the prior year, trade is predicted to contract slightly in 2026, but with Chinese arrivals likely to continue to trend up. Separately, trade in all pulses is forecast to decline by 8% y/y in 2025, linked to softer demand for dry peas and lentils.

MARKET SUMMARY

Led by advances in soyabeans, but with average wheat and maize fob prices also stronger, the IGC GOI notched a 4% monthly gain.

Mainly because of solid increases in the US and Canada, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by 3% m/m, assessed 2% lower compared to a year ago.

Reflecting overall robust demand and export capacity constraints, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index strengthened by 3% over the past month.

The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index declined by 1% m/m, recently touching an eight-year low, on generally slack export activity and seasonal pressure.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index surged to a near-18 month high, gaining by a net 7%. There was an especially marked uplift in the US, tied to hopes for a resumption of Chinese demand.