The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index was little changed w/w. Although some underpinning to international prices stemmed from recent news of a much reduced 2024/25 wheat export quota in Russia, values remained anchored by generally adequate global availabilities and sustained competition for nearby export business.

US futures posted moderate weekly declines, with the steepest losses in HRW wheat-based KCBT values, amid talk of strong export competition, including from Argentina. Against this backdrop, US all-wheat export sales in the w/e 21 November of 366,804 t were the lowest in nine weeks and one-third lower w/w, albeit as 2024/25 (Jun/May) accumulated commitments of 15.2m were still 20% higher y/y. For various US wheat classes, HRW and HRS wheat export commitments were up by 46% and 15% y/y, respectively, while those for SRW wheat were down by 19%. US export inspections in the w/e 28 November also fell markedly w/w, to 296,106 t (364,783 t previous week), with the 2024/25 cumulative total of 11.0m up by 32% y/y. The overall bearish tone in the US market was also tied to a firm US dollar, even if a little softer w/w, as well as mostly benign weather for local 2025/26 winter crops.

After the prior week’s dip, Canada’s wheat shipments rebounded to a six-week high of 695,000 t (494,000 t previous week) in the w/e 24 November, taking 2024/25 (Aug/Jul) cumulative all-wheat deliveries to 7.7m (-2% y/y), including durum at 1.3m (+45%) and other wheats at 6.3m (-8%).

EU prices (France) edged higher w/w, as news of Russia’s restrictive export quota for the second half of the season underpinned exporter sentiment, even though strong competition was still expected from other key origins. An upturn in shipments was also noted, as a private source pegged milling wheat dispatches from the port of Rouen in w/e 27 November at a 16-week high of 98,994 t, mostly destined for Morocco. According to FranceAgriMer, 2025/26 common wheat sowing in France reached 93% complete by 25 November (81% year ago, 91% five-year average), with crop conditions rated at 87% good/excellent (80%, n/a). Durum seeding was 63% done (40%, 66%). In a monthly update, the official estimate for the 2024/25 common wheat crop in the EU was trimmed further, placed at 112.3m t (125.2m previous year), the least in 12 years and 0.3m lower m/m. With consumption increased by 0.2 m t, to 101.6m (101.9m), and trade forecasts unchanged from before, ending stocks were reduced by 0.5m, to 9.8m (17.2m). Durum supply and demand forecasts were unchanged from before.

Fob quotations in Russia firmed following the announcement that the15 February - 30 June 2025 wheat export quota would be set at 11.0m t (excluding shipments to the Eurasian Economic Union), some 18.0m below the previous year’s volume. A sizable increase in floating export taxes likely offered additional support to fob prices, however, few offers were reported amid increased currency volatility, as the rouble dropped to the lowest level since March 2022, before rebounding more recently. Participants also digested unexpected news about a tender from a new agency in Egypt, Mostakbal Misr (Agency for Sustainable Development). With trading companies reportedly seeking more information about purchasing and payment terms, no purchases were made. Although shipping data indicated a seasonal slowdown in exports, analyst SovEcon raised its estimate for November deliveries by 0.2m t, to 4.1m (5.6m prior month), 0.7m higher y/y. In crop-related news, the official data indicated that 2025/26 winter wheat sowings were virtually complete, with area estimated at 17.5m ha (-3% y/y). A local weather forecaster estimated winter crop conditions at 32% good (74% one year earlier), the lowest in a decade, amid soil moisture deficiencies and the late emergence of shoots.

Export prices in Ukraine strengthened slightly, even though the official data pointed to a slowdown in dispatches, reported at 218,000 t in the w/e 27 November (330,000 t previous week), with 2024/25 (Jul/Jun) cumulative exports totalling 8.8m (+51% y/y).

In a quarterly update, Australia’s ABARES raised the domestic crop forecast by 0.1m t, to 31.9m (26.0m previous year), but pointed to mixed harvest results to date. Furthermore, heavy rainfall was reported to be hampering harvesting operations in some regions, while private analysts suggested that up to 5.0m t in the southeastern growing regions could be downgraded to feed quality from milling grade due to excessive precipitation.

In order to contain inflation, the government in India announced plans to sell 2.5m t wheat from state reserves under the Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) to bulk consumers in weekly auctions until March 2025. While India’s 2025/26 sowings were reportedly complete on 20.0m ha as at 29 November, up by 7% y/y, weather outlooks indicated unfavourable above average temperatures during the coming months.

In trade news, Algeria’s OAIC sourced up to 150,000 t milling wheat, at an estimated price of US$267 c&f, likely from the EU (Bulgaria and Romania), for January/March arrival. Tunisia bought 100,000 t milling wheat, at US$258-US$260 c&f, and 100,000 t durum, at US$347-US$350 c&f, both from optional origins, for December/January shipment. Turkey’s TMO reportedly made no sale in tender for 100,000 t durum due to low offered prices (the highest offer quoted at around US$305 fob).