Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Almost entirely because of adjustments for maize, the outlook for 2024/25 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is lowered by 7m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,305m. Total consumption is forecast at 2,335m t, 4m more than in November, mainly on a larger industrial (ethanol) use figure, but with food uptake also revised higher. Including downward adjustments for maize and barley, the estimate for carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is down by 3m t, to 573m.

Based on information on sown areas and weather conditions in major cropping regions, global wheat output is tentatively seen rising to a record 805m t in 2025/26, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year). With supply seen expanding only fractionally, projected gains in consumption could result in a further drawdown in end-season stocks. Trade is projected to edge higher, mainly on increased flows into Asia.

With increased outlooks for South American and Asian growers more than offsetting a reduced US crop estimate, forecast 2024/25 world soyabean output is lifted slightly from before, to a peak of 420m t (+6% y/y). The net rise in total availabilities is channelled to higher projections for utilisation and stocks, both seen at new peaks. Trade is predicted steady from before, at 180m t (+1%).

The Council's expectations for world rice production are maintained from previously, at 535m t (+2%). With consumption pegged slightly higher, and taking account of a smaller carry-in, combined end-season inventories are trimmed by around 3m t, including a comparable reduction for key exporters. Trade in 2025 is projected little-changed from before and 1% higher y/y.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened slightly over the past two months, as net declines in average rice, wheat and soyabean fob prices more than compensated for strength in maize and barley markets.

Total grains production is expected to contract slightly in 2024/25, with relatively minor y/y changes across the main commodities. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are envisaged to lift total consumption to 2,235m t, a new high, but with 1% annual growth seen slower compared to the previous season and the recent average. Amid record demand and a modest supply contraction, global stocks are projected to drop by 5%, to a 10-year low of 573m t, a third successive depletion. At 420m t, grains trade is seen 8% down y/y, with imports by China seen falling by 40%.

Following the threshing of big soyabean crops in northern hemisphere growers, the Council expects aggregate South American output to reach a peak, boosting global production to a record (+6%) in 2024/25. Consumption is set to advance on gains in food, feed and industrial market segments, while inventory build in the three majors is set to see world stocks reach a new high. Trade is predicted at 180m t (+1%), with broad-based, above-average purchases by key importers anticipated. Led by a rebound in Brazil, South American suppliers are set to increase their combined share of all flows.

Tied to gains in the five majors, led by India, world rice output is seen rising by 2% y/y, to a new peak. With population growth set to underpin food demand, total use is set to reach a fresh high, with modest inventory accumulation also anticipated, including a solid expansion of India's reserves. Global import demand is predicted to increase by 1% y/y, as larger shipments to Africa more than offset smaller deliveries to Asian markets.

World chickpeas production is set to expand in 2024/25 (+2%), chiefly on a bigger Australian harvest. With consumption likely to hold steady, inventories could fall slightly, while trade is predicted to edge up, to 2.9m t (+1%).

In the Council's first formal outlook for total pulses trade, volumes are seen contracting by 2% y/y in 2025 on softer demand for dry peas (-7%), as Indian buying falls back. In contrast, lentils import demand could increase slightly on deliveries to Near East Asian markets.

MARKET SUMMARY

With divergent trends across the core components, the IGC GOI fell by 1% compared to the November GMR.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index declined by a net 1%. The downside was mainly attributed to weaker US quotations, tied partly to slowing international demand, but with Black Sea and EU values assessed slightly firmer.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index touched a 17-month peak in mid-January, rising by 5% from the last update, buoyed by heightened global supply concerns.

Weighed by seasonal harvest pressure and stiff competition for available export business, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index eased by 6% from mid-November.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index weakened by 2%, as a sharp, mainly seasonal decline in Brazilian prices outweighed gains in the US and Argentina.