Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
At 2,315m t, the Council's world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is lowered by 6m m/m (month-on-month), including cuts for barley, wheat and sorghum, with the EU accounting for a large portion of the downgrade. Including a reduced outlook for feeding (mainly for on-farm uses), grains consumption is trimmed by 3m t, to 2,321m, still potentially a record. Factoring in smaller opening inventories, the estimate for carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is down by 5m t, to 581m, including a tighter outlook in the major exporters.
There are few significant changes to world soyabean supply and demand balance sheets in 2023/24. Tied to an uprated US crop outlook, global production in 2024/25 is predicted 4m t higher, at 419m (+7%), with consumption and end-season inventories also placed modestly up from before. Trade is projected broadly steady m/m, at 177m t (+2%).
The Council’s expectations for rice supply and demand in 2023/24 are broadly intact, with trade in 2024 pegged a touch higher m/m, largely to reflect uprated adjustments for Vietnamese imports. With projections for production and total use largely unchanged m/m, the figure for end-season stocks is maintained at 176m t (+2m). Traded volumes in 2025 are seen marginally higher, at 54m t (+1%).
Weighed primarily by weakness in average world soyabean export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 4% over the past month.
Global grains production is expected to edge to a new peak in 2024/25, seen 16m t higher y/y (year-on-year), including gains for wheat (+5m), maize (+3m), sorghum (+3m), oats (+2m) and barley (+1m). Because of tight opening stocks, total supply is seen unchanged compared to the season before and, with consumption predicted to increase further, grains inventories look set to contract again, seen dropping by 1%, to 581m t, a 10-year low. Partly owing to larger harvests in a number of key destination markets, world trade is projected to contract by 35m t y/y, 419m.
World soyabean production increased to a record in 2023/24 as a bigger harvest in Argentina more than offset falls in other key growers, while total use and inventories are set to rise solidly y/y. Trade is estimated broadly flat y/y. A record global outturn is expected in 2024/25, with sizeable crops likely in all leading producers. Amid heavy availabilities, consumption is set to reach a peak as solid demand for soya products from feed, food and biofuel sectors boosts processing, with reserves also set to rise by 14m t y/y. Trade is predicted to expand by 2% y/y, including bigger shipments to Asia; both the US and Brazil should export more.
Boosted by gains in Asia, 2023/24 global rice output is seen 1% higher y/y at a record. With uptake seen dropping slightly, end-season reserves are set to edge up, to 174m t (+2m). Amid prospects for expanded acreage and trend yields, world production is seen rising by 6m t y/y, to a fresh peak. Consumption is predicted to advance, including gains in key exporters, with inventories seen edging up by about 2m t y/y. World import demand is pegged a touch higher y/y in 2025.
Tied to a smaller Indian harvest, the 2023/24 global chickpeas crop is pegged at 16.8m t (-5%) and, with total use edging up, inventories are projected to drop markedly. A marginal increase in production in 2024/25 is anticipated, including a more than doubling of output in Australia. With consumption set to stay elevated, also taking account of reduced carry-ins, inventories are likely to contract further. Trade is seen rising by 6% y/y in 2025.
MARKET SUMMARY
The IGC GOI dipped by 4% to a near-four year low. Weakness was almost entirely attributed to a pullback in soyabeans, while other components exhibited only modest changes.
The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index was steady across the past month. While occasional support stemmed from ongoing crop uncertainties, any upside was largely contained by tepid export demand.
Despite increasingly favourable US yield prospects, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index gained by 1%, mostly on strengthening spot quotations in Ukraine.
Amid offsetting adjustments at key origins, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index was little changed compared to the month before.
Led by declines in the US, where recent favourable Midwest weather bolstered expectations for a bumper harvest, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index retreated by a net 8%.