Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
Prospects for the 2026/27 maize harvest have been adversely affected by successive heatwaves in parts of Europe. With otherwise few changes, total grains production is forecast 5m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,422m. The reduced crop outlook has prompted a modest downward revision to the Council's use projection, placed 1m t down from previously, at 2,447m, still a record. Also factoring in a smaller carry-in, total supplies are forecast tighter, with carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) placed 8m t lower than previously, at 610m.
Sizeable availabilities should support grain shipments from the major Black Sea suppliers, but the outlook is far less certain than a month ago due to intensified Russia-Ukraine hostilities and the resulting disruption to export logistics. Largely because of a revised outlook for maize imports, trade is forecast 5m t higher, at 450m.
The Council's expectations for soyabean trade in 2025/26 (Oct/Sep) are lifted marginally, to 187m t, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year). Chiefly reflecting an uprated outlook for the US, more than offsetting a reduced figure for Brazil, the projection for global production in 2026/27 is pegged fractionally lower m/m. With consumption unchanged from before, stocks are seen a little tighter than in June. Trade is predicted at a record (+2%).
The world rice supply and demand balance sheet for 2025/26 is broadly unchanged m/m. Chiefly reflecting downgraded outlooks for the US and Asian growers, the projection for world production in 2026/27 is cut by 2m t m/m. Predictions for trade in both 2026 and 2027 are little-changed m/m, with volumes shaped by import requirements in Asia and Africa.
With wheat, soyabean and maize fob prices recently strengthening on various fundamental and geo-political developments, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 7%, to its highest since June 2024.
The second largest global total grains production in history is anticipated in 2026/27 at 2,422m t, down by 69m from last season’s record. Much of the fall reflects smaller maize and wheat crops, but with oats, sorghum and rye outturns also seen lower. Consumption is forecast to edge to a new peak and, amid tighter supplies, carryover stocks could shrink by 26m t, to a smaller than average 610m. Tied mainly to expected smaller wheat and barley shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa, grain trade is projected to decline to 450m t (-17m).
Further to an anticipated gain in the prior year, world soyabean output is predicted to expand by 10m t y/y in 2026/27, reaching a fresh peak on larger Brazilian and US crops. Given the backdrop of record availabilities amid rising demand for derivatives across key end use sectors, global utilisation is seen at a record. Aggregate stocks are likely to tighten for a second consecutive year, including a modest contraction in key exporters. Trade is predicted to increase by 2% y/y on Asian needs.
World rice output is projected to decrease by around 1% y/y in 2026/27 on smaller crops in Asia and the Americas. A modest y/y increase (+1%) is forecast for world consumption on growing food demand in Asia and Africa. Including a small decline in leading exporters, global stocks could contract y/y. Trade in 2027 (Jan/Dec) is predicted to reach a high of 62m t (+4%) as African buyers secure more.
Tied to potentially smaller harvests in Russia and Canada, world dry peas output is tentatively predicted to contract by 14% y/y from the prior year's peak. Given the backdrop of tighter supplies, both consumption and stocks are seen falling slightly y/y. After a forecast heavy increase in the previous trade year, global import demand could drop modestly in 2026/27 on a pullback in South Asian demand.
MARKET SUMMARY
Linked to recent strength in soyabeans, wheat and maize markets, the IGC GOI climbed by 7% in the period since the June GMR.
The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rose by 9%, touching a more than two-year peak, bolstered by recent concerns about disruptions to Black Sea exports, coupled with an upsurge in crude oil prices.
The IGC GOI maize sub-Index gained by 6%, with a portion of the previous month's sharp losses unwound amid US Midwest weather threats.
With seasonal weakness in Thailand countering gains in other key Asian exporters, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index dipped by 1%.
Pulled higher by solid gains in the US and South America, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index advanced by a net 9%. Sentiment was buoyed by renewed strength in energy markets and underlying strong demand.