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Five-year baseline projections of supply and demand for wheat, maize (corn), rice and soyabeans to 2022/23

Executive Summary

The projections outlined in this report represent a possible supply and demand scenario for the major grains (wheat and maize (corn)), rice and soyabeans for the five years to 2022/23, taking into account a number of broad assumptions. These include trends in population growth, agriculture and trade policies, as well as prospects for the global economy.

The outlook assumes that growing conditions are conducive for yields to reach average levels and does not take account of any variability linked to particularly favourable or unfavourable weather in an individual season.

Under these assumptions, net gains in global output are projected, although growth rates may not be as strong as in recent seasons. For grains, some contraction of world stocks is anticipated, mainly because of a fall in maize inventories in China.

Historical supply and demand estimates for maize in China have been reviewed, leading to higher than previously assumed stocks at the start of the five-year period. However, given ongoing measures to stimulate domestic demand, a significant depletion of China's inventories is anticipated by 2022/23.

Global trade in all four commodities is forecast to reach new all-time peaks, mainly on expanding needs in Asia and Africa.

Table of contents
  • Overview 2
  • Wheat4
  • Maize (corn)6
  • Rice11
  • Soyabeans13
  • Appendix Tables15