(27 Aug 2015)
- Mainly reflecting expectations for a smaller 2015/16 maize crop, world grain production is forecast to fall by 1% y/y. Following this month’s upgrades, wheat and barley harvests are seen broadly unchanged y/y.
- Despite a slight tightening in the maize carryover, global grain stocks are forecast at 447m t, a 29-year peak.
- Grains trade is likely to remain well above recent averages but, led by a drop in wheat and barley sales, overall volumes may decline by 2% y/y.
- World rice trade is projected to stay historically high in 2016, with China again the biggest buyer owing to large domestic-export price premiums.
- Global soyabean carryovers are anticipated to edge up to a new peak as accumulation in the US more than offsets declines elsewhere, including in Argentina and Brazil.