(24 Sep 2015)
- A 1% drop in global grains production is forecast in 2015/16, almost entirely due to lower maize output.
- Grains stocks are forecast at a 29-year peak at end-2015/16, including record wheat inventories. But those of maize will likely fall.
- Grains trade is projected to stay high, albeit 3% below last year’s record.
- World rice carryovers are seen falling by 10% y/y on declines in leading exporters. Trade is expected to be down slightly in 2016, but the outlook depends on demand from China.
- Due to an expected above-average global outturn and record supplies, soyabean inventories are seen rising by 5% y/y to a new peak, led by accumulation in key exporters.