International Grains Council
  TOTAL GRAINS


million tons            
12/1313/1414/1515/16
    est.forecast
     30.0727.08
TOTAL GRAINS*
Production 17952006201519701988
Trade 271310322312314
Consumption 18181936197719781985
Carryover stocks 337407445435447
year/year change -237038 2
Major exporters a) 99121145130139
a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States
* Wheat and coarse grains

(27 Aug 2015)
TOTAL GRAINS:

  • Mainly reflecting expectations for a smaller 2015/16 maize crop, world grain production is forecast to fall by 1% y/y. Following this month’s upgrades, wheat and barley harvests are seen broadly unchanged y/y.

  • Despite a slight tightening in the maize carryover, global grain stocks are forecast at 447m t, a 29-year peak.

  • Grains trade is likely to remain well above recent averages but, led by a drop in wheat and barley sales, overall volumes may decline by 2% y/y.

  • World rice trade is projected to stay historically high in 2016, with China again the biggest buyer owing to large domestic-export price premiums.

  • Global soyabean carryovers are anticipated to edge up to a new peak as accumulation in the US more than offsets declines elsewhere, including in Argentina and Brazil.




Supply & Demand Graph



TABLES


Supply & demand: total grains


Trade: total grains


© copyright International Grains Council 2015