(23 Apr 2015)
OUTLOOK FOR 2014/15
- Crop prospects are improving in Brazil and with some northern hemisphere estimates also revised higher, the world crop forecast is increased by 4m t, to 994m, a new record.
- Consumption is forecast to reach unprecedented levels, with feed and industrial uses both seen up 3% y/y.
- With some upward revisions this month, including in the US and China, world stocks are now seen at their highest since 1986/87.
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16
- Owing to a slight drop in area and with yields seen falling back to average levels, world production is forecast to contract by 4% y/y.
- Demand is expected to remain very strong, down only slightly y/y. Smaller crops may contain feed use in some countries.
- While world carryovers are expected to tighten, including in the major exporters, ending stocks should still be larger than average.