(26 Mar 2015)
OUTLOOK FOR 2014/15
- Crop conditions in the southern hemisphere are mixed. Due to recent hot, dry conditions in South Africa, the world production forecast is lowered by 2m t, down fractionally y/y.
- With gains in the main exporters, but also in China and the EU, world ending stocks are forecast to rise by 9% y/y.
- World import demand remains strong, with trade (Jul/Jun) expected to be slightly below last year’s record.
OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16
- Global harvested area is forecast to fall for a second consecutive year and, with yields also seen down, production may drop by 5% y/y.
- Total demand is projected to remain at historically high levels but, with overall supplies seen lower, slightly less may be used for feed.
- Carryover stocks are projected to tighten, but will remain above average and much higher than recent lows.